Jobs data and SNB surprise economists

ECONOMISTS were dealt two big surprises this week.

LOCALLY it was strong December jobs figures, while internationally, it was the Swiss National Bank's decision to step away from its currency cap.

But ahead of the jobs figures, economists at another of the big four banks changed tack to forecast a rate cut from the RBA this year.The latest, joining his counterparts at Westpac and NAB, was ANZ Bank chief economist Warren Hogan."Weaker growth and lower inflation in 2015 will provide the RBA with a reason and the scope to take the cash rate down 50 basis points to 2.00 per cent over the first half of the year," he said.Then came the jobs figures, with unemployment falling and employment rising solidly.That encouraged Commonwealth Bank economists Gareth Aird and Michael Workman to stick to their guns."Labour market trends are a key determinant for monetary policy settings. And today's figures are commensurate with our view that the RBA won't cut rates further."Citigroup's Josh Williamson and Paul Brennan saw it much the same way, saying the figures were a "perfect storm of positive labour force data"."It could also be an important driver of boosting `animal spirits', something the RBA governor has wanted for some time," they said."We continue to hold our view that the RBA will be sidelined for all of 2015 and return to a hiking bias in early 2016."But Bank of America economists Saul Eslake and Alex Joiner were not getting too carried away."This result clearly reduces pressure, which may have been building, for the RBA to ease policy in the short term. Nonetheless, we continue to expect that the unemployment rate will rise in 2015 reaching a peak just over 6.5 per cent."And ANZ's Warren Hogan just tweaked his forecast a little."The main impact of these numbers on our monetary policy view is around the timing of rate cuts," he said."Today's figures, particularly if validated with another unemployment reading below 6.3 per cent in January, will mean the RBA would likely wait for the seasonal re-analysis (of the jobs figures) in March."This would then rule out a March rate cut and push back the timing of the first move to May, after the Q1 CPI (consumer price index) read."The SNB's decision, which came without without warning, to stop capping the franc against the euro caused anguish among traders betting the franc would not rally, which it did with a vengeance.AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver called the event "francogate" but said it's hard to get too excited by the surge in the franc, because Switzerland is after all only a small economy.But it does have implications for Australia, Dr Oliver said."For Australia, the Swiss gyrations underline the problem that outside the US lots of countries would like to get their currencies down, making it harder for the $A to fall on a trade weighted basis, which in turn means it will have to fall further against the $US."

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Queues in UK to buy Charlie Hebdo

QUEUES are forming outside newsagents and bookshops as readers in the UK try to get hold of copies of the first Charlie Hebdo magazine since the deadly shootings in Paris.

DEMAND is high for the magazine's new issue, which carries a front-cover cartoon of a crying Prophet Mohammed, in the wake of last week's attack in which gunmen killed 12 people at its offices.

More than 1,000 copies are expected to be available in the UK, with newsagents bracing themselves for a rush.About 100 people were queuing outside The French Bookshop, in South Kensington, London, which is limiting sales of Charlie Hebdo to one copy per customer.A reported five million copies of the magazine are being printed, its largest-ever run, with translations into English, Spanish and Arabic, and versions available in the UK, Italy and Turkey.The first batch of about 500,000 copies was quickly sold out and several have appeared on online auction site eBay attracting four-figure bids, well in excess of the modest three-euro ($A4.20) cover price.Interest in the new issue of Charlie Hebdo has prompted more than 50 British Muslim leaders to appeal for calm from the Islamic community in response to the cartoon.

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Goldman Sachs 4Q earnings fall 10%

WALL Street investment bank Goldman Sachs has reported a 10 per cent drop in fourth-quarter earnings, hurt by a fall in trading activity.

THE bank earned $US2.03 billion, or $US4.38 a share, for the three-month period ending in December. That compares with a profit of $US2.25 billion, or $US4.60 a share, in the same period a year earlier.

The bank cited a slowdown in trading activity in its fixed income, currency and commodities division for the profit decline. It also blamed a slowdown in investment bank underwriting.Total revenues reached $US7.69 billion, down from $US8.78 billion a year ago.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected Goldman to earn $US4.32 a share on $US7.66 billion in sales and revenue.Shares of Goldman were marginally lower in pre-market trading to $US178.49.

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Chris Cairns pleads not guilty to perjury

FORMER New Zealand cricket captain Chris Cairns has pleaded not guilty to a perjury charge arising from a 2012 UK libel trial over alleged match-fixing.

THE 44-year-old appeared on Friday at the Old Bailey before Justice Nigel Sweeney for a plea and case management hearing ahead of a trial scheduled for October.

Cairns appeared in the London court alongside his barrister from the 2012 defamation trial, Andrew Fitch-Holland, who also pleaded not guilty to one count of perverting the course of justice.Cairns, wearing a navy blue suit and red tie, stopped briefly for camera crews and photographers as he arrived at the court.He and Fitch-Holland stood before the court behind a glass screen and both said "not guilty" when charges were read out.Cairns won STG90,000 ($A164,000) in damages in 2012 when he sued Indian Premier League founder Lalit Modi over a tweet that accused the Kiwi of match-fixing.But police allege Cairns made a statement during that libel trial that he knew to be false when he declared he'd "never, ever cheated at cricket".Fitch-Holland, 49, is accused of asking disgraced New Zealand cricketer Lou Vincent to provide a false witness statement in connection with the libel action between Cairns and Modi.A four-week trial is scheduled to begin on October 5, 2015 after it was delayed because key witnesses are only available during down time in the international cricket calendar.Current New Zealand captain Brendon McCullum, who said he would testify against Cairns in a perjury trial, could be among up to 12 leading cricketers who might be called to give evidence.Meanwhile Modi announced in November he was suing Cairns over their 2012 court case.Modi is reportedly seeking more than STG2.4 million ($A4.38 million) from the former all-rounder.Cairns retired from international cricket in 2004 after becoming one of only 12 players in Test history to complete the 'double' of 200 wickets and 3000 runs.Cairns and Fitch-Holland were again released on unconditional bail and another pre-trial hearing will be held at a date to be determined.

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Muhammad Ali back in hospital

BOXING legend Muhammad Ali is back in the hospital following treatment for a severe urinary tract infection, his second stint in the hospital in the past four weeks.

THE three-time former heavyweight champion was admitted to an undisclosed hospital earlier this week, Ali family spokesman Bob Gunnell said on Thursday. Ali is in stable condition.

Ali was hospitalised on December 20 with what was initially believed to be a mild case of pneumonia. Doctors later determined Ali was suffering from a urinary tract infection, not pneumonia, Gunnell said.The man known worldwide for his boxing prowess and humanitarian work has been spending his time listening to music, reading and watching old movies, Gunnell said. Ali is expected to be released Friday.Ali turns 73 on Saturday and hopes to spend it at one of his homes with family, Gunnell said.Ali's public appearances have diminished in recent years as he wages his long-running fight against Parkinson's disease, but he still enjoys getting out and watching sports and visiting friends.Ali retired from boxing in 1981 and devoted himself to social causes. He has travelled the world on humanitarian missions, mingling with the masses and rubbing elbows with world leaders.

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Sydney man denied bail over homemade bomb

Bail has been denied for a Sydney man accused of possessing a "catastrophic" homemade bomb. Source: AAP

A SYDNEY man accused of possessing a potentially "catastrophic" homemade bomb wrapped with 50 ball bearings has been refused bail in court.

HARLEY Roy Turnbull, 22, was arrested on Wednesday after his mother allegedly found the device in his bedroom at their home in the western Sydney suburb of Werrington County on Tuesday night.

Bomb squad specialists later detonated it at a nearby football field.Turnbull was charged with possessing a prohibited weapon and an explosive for unlawful purpose.On Thursday, Turnbull appeared via audio visual link in Penrith Local Court where he was refused bail after his lawyer, Brad Mallinson, entered pleas of not guilty on his behalf.In refusing bail, Magistrate Dorelle Pinch took into account previous failures by Turnbull to appear in court, his lengthy criminal record and the serious nature of the offence."There are no bail conditions that can mitigate these unacceptable risks," Ms Pinch told the court.After the decision, Turnbull, sporting a shaved head and facial tattoos, swore at the magistrate before his audio visual link was turned off.Earlier, the court heard police held "grave concerns" for the community if Turnbull were released.Prosecutor Ben Seabury said the device had the potential to "kill or maim", adding that "50 ball bearings would have caused major damage".Earlier this week police said the bomb had the potential to be catastrophic.The court was told Turnbull obtained the "improvised explosive device", allegedly wrapped with ball bearings and contained in a bag, from a silver car outside his house. It's alleged he then took the bag into his bedroom and later left in the car.Turnbull's mother went into the bedroom, opened the bag, and called police.The court heard that when shown a picture of the homemade bomb in an interview with police after his arrest, Turnbull said the device "looked cool" and "could be a bunger".Mr Seabury conceded there was no evidence to prove Turnbull saw the device "before he was shown the picture ... during the interview".In arguing for bail, Mr Mallinson conceded his client had a "dreadful" criminal record, but said he didn't know "what he was in possession of"."If he knew what it was, he would have been far more careful," Mr Mallinson said.The matter returns to Parramatta Local Court on February 27.

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Birdman, Budapest top Oscar nominations

TWO extravagant comedies, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, have tied for the most Oscar nominations with nine nods each, including best picture.

THEY were joined in best-picture nominations on Thursday by Boyhood, Whiplash, The Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, American Sniper and Selma.

The Imitation Game trailed close behind with eight nominations. Clint Eastwood's Navy SEAL drama American Sniper did especially well, landing six nods including best actor for Bradley Cooper.Also with six nominations was Richard Linklater's coming-of-age epic Boyhood, which remains the best-picture favourite.Last year's Oscars, hosted by Ellen DeGeneres, drew 43 million viewers, making it the most-watched entertainment telecast in a decade.12 Years a Slave took best picture. This year's ceremony on February 22 will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris.

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Newest jetliner begins flight in Qatar

The world's newest jetliner, the Airbus A350, has departed Qatar for its first commercial flight. Source: AAP

THE world's latest jetliner has taken to the air on its first commercial flight from Qatar.

THE Airbus A350 operated by Qatar Airways departed from the capital Doha on Thursday morning bound for Frankfurt, Germany.

The flight marks the debut of the twin-aisle, long-range plane, which promises to connect smaller cities with major aviation hubs non-stop at a cheaper cost for airlines.The A350 is the third and final major new aircraft in a decade, following the introduction of the double-decker Airbus A380 in October 2007 and the Boeing 787, which carried its first passengers in October 2011.The A350 can fly 276 to 369 passengers, depending on the variant and airline's choice of seating configuration.

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Ukraine mourns 13 victims of bus blast

UKRAINE is holding a day of mourning after 13 people were killed when a bus was hit by what the government says was a shell fired by Russian-backed separatists.

PRESIDENT Petro Poroshenko said respects would be paid on Thursday for all people killed by rebel military offensives in eastern Ukraine.

Separatists deny responsibility for the deaths and accuse Ukrainian forces of staging an attack near the town of Volnovakha to smear them.Russian media has speculated the blast was provoked by an anti-personnel mine.Surveillance camera footage filmed during Tuesday's incident shows shells falling near the bus, although the vehicle is not seen in shot.Monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the bus showed "damage consistent with a nearby rocket impact".

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Target to exit Canada

TARGET is exiting Canada where it has 133 stores and about 17,600 employees.

CHAIRMAN and CEO Brian Cornell said on Thursday that the company was unable to find a realistic scenario in which Target Canada would become profitable before at least 2021.

The retailer said it anticipates approximately $US5.4 billion ($A5.84 billion) in fourth-quarter losses from discontinued operations in Canada.

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Bodies found floating in India's Ganges

MORE than 100 decaying bodies have been found in a tributary of the Ganges river in northern India, officials say.

AUTHORITIES said they believed that the deceased were given water burials, although a police investigation has been ordered.

Water burials are sometimes used when families cannot afford a cremation.Thirty bodies were recovered from the river in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh state on Tuesday.By Wednesday, a total of 104 bodies had been found.Senior district official Saryu Prasad said efforts were under way to DNA test the bodies and identify them."The waters in the river have receded, because of which the bodies may have surfaced," Prasad said.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has vowed to clean up the notoriously polluted river, India's most sacred waterway.Green campaigners have been demanding an end to water burials in the Ganges.Volunteers of the Ganga Bachao Andolan (Save Ganges Movement) on Wednesday began a sit-in protest against the dumping of the dead in the river, the IANS news agency reported.

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US eyes corrupt Honduras officials' homes

THE US Justice Department has filed a lawsuit to confiscate nine properties in the United States worth about $US1.5 million ($A1.62 million) that have been allegedly linked to the corruption scandal involving the Honduran Institute of Social Security, IHSS.

A STATEMENT released on Tuesday by the US embassy in Tegucigalpa said that the properties, worth $US1,528,000, were bought with money traced to a $US2 million bribe paid by a Honduran company to former IHSS director Mario Zelaya.

Zelaya and former officials of his administration are imprisoned in Honduras for embezzling millions from IHSS funds.A former model from the country and Zelaya's Chilean lover are also implicated."Mario Zelaya was the director of Honduras's social security agency, but instead of building a social safety net for his country's citizens, he allegedly used his position of public trust to steal public money for himself," said Assistant Attorney General Leslie R. Caldwell of the Justice Department's Criminal Division."Criminals should make no mistake: the United States is not a safe haven for the proceeds of your crimes. If you hide or invest your stolen money here, we will use all the legal tools we have to find it and seize it," she added.The properties concerned are located in the US state of Louisiana."The US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Louisiana is committed to working with our law enforcement partners, both domestically and internationally, to ensure that this district is not used to launder corruptly obtained funds, no matter the source of the corruption," said federal attorney Kenneth Polite of the Eastern District of Louisiana.Between 2010 and 2014, Zelaya served as the director of IHSS which provides social security services, including retirement pensions and other work-related compensation.

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S Korea activist held for 'praising North'

SOUTH Korean officials have arrested a political activist for allegedly praising North Korea, just days after they deported a US woman on similar charges.

THE arrest comes as the government faces criticism it seeks to limit free speech.

Kim Dae-hyun, a spokesman for the Seoul Central District Court, said Hwang Sun was arrested soon after the court issued a warrant.Hwang is the former spokeswoman for a now disbanded leftist party and has long been hounded by claims she supports Pyongyang.Over the weekend, the Justice Ministry deported US travel writer Shin Eun-mi because of similar accusations she had praised the North.Shin appeared with Hwang in lectures about North Korea last year.Praising rival North Korea can be punished by up to seven years in prison.

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US hands war crimes suspect to Uganda

THE US embassy in Uganda says US Special Forces in Obo, Central African Republic, have handed over a Lord's Resistance Army commander who is charged with war crimes to Ugandan troops.

US embassy spokesman Daniel Travis confirmed the handover of Dominic Ongwen, who had been held by US troops since January 6.

Travis said it was "a major step forward" securing the future of LRA-affected areas of east and central Africa.Ugandan army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ankunda said Uganda will transfer the rebel commander to Central African Republic authorities for transfer to The Hague, Netherlands, for trial of war crimes and crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.Ugandan troops are a major part of the African Union Regional Task Force in Central African Republic.

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France cracks down on hate speech

THE French government has ordered prosecutors around the country to crack down on hate speech, anti-Semitism and glorifying terrorism.

IN a message distributed to all French prosecutors and judges on Wednesday, the Justice Ministry laid out the legal basis for rounding up those who defend the Paris terror attacks as well as those responsible for racist or anti-Semitic words or acts.

The announcement came minutes after the government said 54 people had been arrested for defending terrorism in the week after terror attacks around Paris left 17 dead.The three gunmen who carried out the attacks were killed by French security forces.

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